Absent Agreement, the Building Political Crisis in Tiny Macedonia Could Have International Impact

What makes the problem particularly urgent for the world outside of the Balkans is Macedonia's status as a major transit point for hundreds of thousands of refugees from war-torn regions, such as Syria, who are entering the country -- mostly on their way to seek resettlement in Europe.
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Twenty years ago, the world was riveted to the bloody ethnic conflicts that exploded in the former Yugoslavia. Mass ethnic killings dominated the news. This conflict in southern Europe's Balkan region posed a deep threat to the overall stability of Europe.

After years of war, relative peace was finally restored by NATO peacekeepers, limited military action and the diplomatic skills of the United States and its European allies.

The southernmost of those former Yugoslav republics, Macedonia, now threatens to slide back into instability if its political parties -- with the help of a European Union mediator -- fail to agree on the implementation of last year's agreement to settle a long-running political crisis.

Last week one of those parties threatened to boycott April elections that all parties agreed a year ago would provide the centerpiece for a political settlement and a new start.

The political instability adds another toxic ingredient to an already potentially explosive mixture in the region.

What makes the problem particularly urgent for the world outside of the Balkans is Macedonia's status as a major transit point for hundreds of thousands of refugees from war-torn regions, such as Syria, who are entering the country -- mostly on their way to seek resettlement in the EU countries of northern Europe.

More than 600,000 refugees have transited through the country in 2015 alone, with projections showing the refugee flow not likely to abate in the coming months or the near future.

The strain brought on by the influx of refugees is complicated by the fragile economic situation. Macedonia is a landlocked country of two million surrounded by Greece, Albania, Kosovo, Serbia and Bulgaria. The entire Balkan Peninsula, home to about 70 million people, is still reeling from the impact of the Greek economic crisis, and the collapse of Russian demand for their exports.

During the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo, 360,000 Albanians took refuge in Macedonian camps. Soon after, Albanian nationalists on both sides of the border took up arms demanding an autonomous region in areas of Macedonia with heavy concentrations of Albanians.

That war ended with an agreement that provided more Albanian autonomy, which was policed by a NATO monitoring force.

The latest Macedonia's political crisis erupted out of a controversy over alleged government spying on the opposition and disputes over the electoral process itself that played out for months last year.

Given the history -- and Macedonia's critical strategic location -- the EU appointed a mediator to settle the crisis. The process was led by European Commissioner Johannes Hahn. The government itself had a massive incentive to cooperate with Hahn, since it has long sought membership in the EU.

All four major political parties -- including two ethnic Albanian parties, signed the Przino Agreement brokered by Hahn last year. It called for the resignation of the current Prime Minister 100 days prior to an April 24th election that would be administered by an interim administration.

But now that process has begun to unravel. The main opposition party, led by Social Democrat leader Zoran Zaev has pulled out of the agreement and threatens to boycott the agreed elections, throwing their legitimacy -- and the country's stability -- completely up for grabs.

It is critical for the stability of the region -- and for Europe -- that all parties come together to implement the EU brokered process that includes the April 24 elections.

And the international community should do everything necessary to guarantee fair and transparent elections.

Last week, Vice President Joe Biden said he "agreed on the importance of continued implementation of the Przino Agreement and taking the actions necessary to ensure credible elections." This week, European Commissioner Hahn is continuing negotiations with Macedonia's four major political parties and pledged the full support of Europe's institutions to stand up, support and monitor the April elections including the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights' plan to send 24 permanent observers leading up to the election.

Macedonian voters deserve the chance to vote after being promised April elections. Just as important, it is critical to all of us that a fully-functional elected government be put in place to help stabilize an explosive region and to deal with the migrant crisis -- the largest humanitarian crisis since World War II.

Robert Creamer is a long-time political organizer and strategist, and author of the book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com. He is a partner in Democracy Partners and a Senior Strategist for Americans United for Change. Follow him on Twitter @rbcreamer.

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