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The World Has To Cut Carbon Emissions By 45% Under Paris Agreement, But Is Only On Track For A Less Than 1% Decline

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Updated Feb 26, 2021, 11:46am EST

Topline

 The United Nations issued a warning Friday that the world would have to dramatically reduce emissions of planet-warming gases in order to meet a key target of the 2015 Paris Agreement, an effort needed by nearly 200 countries to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change. 

Key Facts

A U.N. report projected carbon dioxide emissions must fall by 45% below 2010 levels over the next decade to keep global temperature increases within 1.5°C and 2°C, a range scientific studies show lowers the risks of climate-related natural disasters, extreme weather and food insecurity.

But the latest emission reduction targets submitted by nations in the Paris Agreement would only lead to a less than 1% decline in global carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, according to the U.N. report. 

The report is “a red alert for our planet,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.

“It shows governments are nowhere close to the level of ambition needed to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement,” Guterres said. 

Key Background

The report echoed past findings from the U.N. and independent researchers. A recent peer-reviewed study from the University of Washington concluded that emission reductions need to nearly double to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The researchers said that with existing emission reduction pledges, there is only a 5% probability that global temperature increases will remain below 2 °C this century.

Crucial Quote

“This report shows that current levels of climate ambition are very far from putting us on a pathway that will meet our Paris Agreement goals,” said Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of UN Climate Change. “While we acknowledge the recent political shift in momentum towards stronger climate action throughout the world, decisions to accelerate and broaden climate action everywhere must be taken now.”

Tangent

The U.S. rejoined the Paris Agreement when President Joe Biden took office last month. The Trump administration formally withdrew the U.S. from the agreement last year as part of broader efforts to lift environmental regulations it said hurt the economy. The U.S. emitted about 15% of global carbon dioxide in 2019, according to the United States Geological Survey.

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