China expresses surprise as ‘spy balloon’ floating over Montana casts shadow on impending Blinken Beijing visit

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HASTILY CALLED BRIEFING: Word went out to Pentagon reporters just before 4:30 p.m. yesterday that a senior defense official would be briefing on a “national security issue” in less than an hour. The urgent Zoom briefing was to reveal that NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, was tracking a high-altitude surveillance balloon, believed to be Chinese, drifting over the northwestern United States for the past few days.

“The U.S. government, to include NORAD, continues to track and monitor it closely. The balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground,” said a statement issued by Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary.

The senior official briefing on background said the U.S. is confident the balloon, described as “sizable,” belongs to China and disclosed that President Joe Biden was briefed. The official added that after consulting with his senior leaders, including Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, while traveling in the Philippines, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin decided the U.S. would not shoot it down.

“We had been looking at whether there was an option yesterday over some sparsely populated areas in Montana,” said the official, who noted it was decided the possible debris field from the balloon could cause damage on the ground and that its intelligence collection potential has “limited additive value” compared to Chinese spy satellites. “We wanted to, you know, take care that somebody didn’t get hurt or property wasn’t destroyed.”

SUSPECTED CHINESE SPY BALLOON DISCOVERED FLOATING OVER NORTHERN US

CHINA URGES ‘CALM’: At today’s regular Foreign Ministry briefing, spokeswoman Mao Ning seemed to suggest China wasn’t fully aware of what was happening with the balloon, saying speculation and hype were unhelpful “before we have a clear understanding of the facts.”

“China is a responsible country that always abides by international law and has no intention of infringing on any country’s territory and airspace,” Mao said. “As for the balloon … we are looking into and verifying the situation and hope that both sides can handle this together calmly and carefully.”

“We do not doubt that this is a [People’s Republic of China] balloon. And that is an assessment shared across our intelligence and analytic community,” the senior defense official told reporters, adding that it seemed to be lingering over an area where the U.S. has fields of nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles.

“Clearly the intent of this balloon is for surveillance, and the current flight path does carry it over a number of sensitive sites,” the official said. “Our best assessment at the moment is that whatever the surveillance payload is on this balloon, it does not create significant value added over and above what the PRC is likely able to collect through things like satellites in low-Earth orbit. But out of an abundance of caution, we have taken additional mitigation steps.”

BLINKEN’S TRIP: The balloon flap comes as Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepares to travel to Beijing next week to meet his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang, as well as possibly President Xi Jinping.

“Every time we engage at a high level with the PRC, it’s really about one thing and one thing only, and that’s responsible management of what is, we think, the most consequential, complex bilateral relationship on the planet,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price. “What we seek to do is to have these conversations, to see to it that competition doesn’t veer into conflict, to see to it that there are guardrails on that relationship.”

Tensions are already high between the U.S. and China, and the announcement this week that the U.S. military had reached an agreement with the Philippines that will put U.S. troops just 200 miles from Taiwan didn’t sit well with the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

“The U.S. side, out of selfish interests, holds on to the zero-sum mentality and keeps strengthening military deployment in the Asia-Pacific. This would escalate tensions and endanger peace and stability in the region,” said Mao yesterday. “It is China’s consistent belief that defense and security cooperation between countries needs to be conducive to regional peace and stability and not targeted at or harmful to the interests of any third party.”

HOUSE COMMITTEE ANNOUNCES INVESTIGATION INTO JOHN KERRY NEGOTIATIONS WITH CHINESE

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Richard Marles at the Pentagon today at 1 p.m.

The meeting comes as details are expected to be released soon on a plan for the U.S., the United Kingdom, and Australia to build a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines for the Australian navy. The submarines are being produced as a counterweight to China’s growing military, under the AUKUS security agreement the three nations signed in 2021.

“More than ever, our three countries have similar outlook on the key challenges and opportunities confronting our world. AUKUS will enhance our shared ability to sustain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific,” Austin said the last time Marles visited the Pentagon. “The United States is committed to ensuring that Australia acquires this capability at the earliest possible date.”

US TO SEND LONGER, BUT NOT LONGEST, RANGE MUNITIONS TO UKRAINE: Once again after saying “no,” the Biden administration is coming around to “yes” on providing munitions to Ukraine that can strike deeper behind Russian lines.

An announcement from the White House is expected as early as today that the next round of military assistance will exceed $2 billion and will include Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs with a range nearly double that of the precision artillery rockets fired by U.S.-supplied HIMARS launchers.

“The long-range hybrid weapon combines two proven devices: an Air Force Small-Diameter Bomb guided by GPS satellites that’s currently in wide use and an Army rocket already being operated by Ukraine’s forces,” reported Bloomberg’s Tony Capaccio. “Like some other equipment provided by the US and allies, it won’t be deployed in Ukraine anytime soon: An industry official said it would take about nine months for the first deliveries once the Air Force issues a contract.”

The Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb was developed jointly by Boeing and Saab. It has a range of just over 90 miles, which is still only half the range of the Lockheed Martin ATACMS, the Army Tactical Missile System, which can strike targets 190 miles away.

FDD REPORT: TIME TO SANCTION RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR ENERGY INDUSTRY: As the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches later this month, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies is out with a report of Russia’s state-owned nuclear company Rosatom, which continues to pump a steady stream of revenue into Russia’s economy.

In the report released this morning, FDD analysts Andrea Stricker and Anthony Ruggiero argued it’s time for Washington and its allies to wean themselves from dependence on Russian nuclear supply.

“If he so chooses, Russian President Vladimir Putin could leverage Rosatom’s influence over the nuclear supply chain to inflict pain now or in the future on Western countries that support Ukraine,” Stricker and Ruggiero wrote, proposing the Biden administration announce sanctions against Rosatom and its subsidiaries. “This should include a grace period for customers to wind-down relationships for which alternate partners are harder to find, such as in-progress nuclear reactor projects and reactor fuel supplies.”

So far, Russia’s robust nuclear industry “has largely been immune” from the effect of sanctions, they note, adding that Rosatom “has a 10-year portfolio of overseas orders worth $200 billion” and that 2023 revenue will grow by 15%.

SIGAR: TIME TO CUT OFF THE TALIBAN? In its latest report to Congress, the Pentagon’s Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, or SIGAR, concluded that humanitarian assistance intended for Afghan citizens and refugees is being siphoned off by the Taliban and their increasingly harsh treatment of women.

“It is SIGAR’s judgment that the Taliban regime’s institutionalized abuse of women raises the important question for policymakers of whether the United States can continue providing aid to Afghanistan without benefitting or propping up the Taliban,” the report concluded. “First, the Taliban regime derives revenue from this aid in the form of ‘licenses,’ ‘taxes,’ and ‘administrative fees’ imposed on NGOs and their employees as a condition for operating in Afghanistan. Second, U.S. aid to Afghanistan, whether humanitarian in nature or of some other kind, may inadvertently confer legitimacy onto the Taliban, both internationally and domestically.”

The SIGAR report quoted United Nations statistics that some 28 million Afghans, roughly two-thirds of the country, are dependent on international food assistance. “Since the Taliban takeover in August 2021, the United States has appropriated or otherwise made available over $8 billion in assistance to Afghan citizens and refugees,” the report said. “This includes more than $2 billion, primarily for humanitarian and development aid in Afghanistan, and over $3.5 billion transferred to a newly created Afghan Fund.”

INDUSTRY WATCH: LIBERTY LIFTER SEAPLANE: The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has named two teams — General Atomics working with Maritime Applied Physics Corporation and Aurora Flight Sciences working with Gibbs & Cox and ReconCraft — to design a revolutionary “Liberty Lifter” seaplane, described as a “large flying boat similar in size and capacity to the C-17.”

An artist’s rendering on the DARPA website shows the concept of a twin-hull, mid-wing plane propelled by 12 turboshaft engines, deploying amphibious landing craft on a beachhead.

DARPA BEGINS DESIGNING MASSIVE CARRIER SEAPLANE

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Suspected Chinese spy balloon discovered floating over northern US

Washington Examiner: Xi worries US will ‘strangle’ China’s tech sector

Washington Examiner: House committee announces investigation into John Kerry negotiations with Chinese

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Washington Examiner: ‘Threatening rhetoric’: Lavrov calls tiny Moldova ‘the next Ukraine’

Washington Examiner: Senators ask Biden to delay F-16 sale to Turkey until Finland and Sweden in NATO

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Washington Examiner: CENTCOM killed 11 ISIS operatives and detained 227 others in January operations

Washington Examiner: DARPA begins designing massive carrier seaplane

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Heritage’s Kevin Roberts rightly puts defense spending pressure on Congress but overemphasizes technology

Washington Examiner: Five questions Congress must urgently (and again) ask the CIA

CBS News: CIA Director William Burns: Next Six Months Will Be ‘Critical’ In Ukraine War

New York Times: Putin Promises Victory In Ukraine As His Forces Strike A Key City

AP: Along Ukraine-Belarus border, a war of nerves — and drones

Bloomberg: US to Send Ukraine Boeing’s Ground-Launched, GPS-Guided Bombs

Politico: Drone Maker Offers to Sell 2 Reapers to Ukraine for $1

Breaking Defense: What Ukraine Wants from France: Munitions, Training, Air Defense and, Maybe, Fighter Jets?

Washington Post: Kremlin Seeks To Shed Pariah Image With Diplomatic Blitz

19fortyfive.com: Putin Strikes Back: Russia Will Soon Attack with Large Offensive in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Why Won’t Russia and Ukraine Negotiate?

19fortyfive.com: America Made Clear Mistakes During the Korean War. Will History Repeat in Ukraine?

Washington Times: China Held Taiwan War Council In October, General’s Memo Reveals

Wall Street Journal: Fears Of Losing Out To China Put U.S. Under Pressure Over Kenya Base

AP: Taiwan’s Tsai Welcomes Retired U.S. Admiral For China Talks

AP: US seeks to expel Russian mercenaries from Sudan, Libya

New York Times: Tortured Guantánamo Detainee Is Freed In Belize

Defense News: Space Force Object Tracking Upgrade Delayed by Engineering Challenges

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Launches New Stealthy Tanker Program, with Delivery Projected for 2040

Air Force Times: Air Force Efforts to Reduce On-the-Job, Chronic Injuries Take Root

19fortyfive.com: F-35I Adir: Israel’s Very Special Stealth Fighter

19fortyfive.com: Don’t Show Putin This Video: Ukraine Is Killing Russian Tanks

Calendar

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3

12 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: “NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and Efforts to Reduce Risk and Build Public Trust in Artificial Intelligence,” with Elham Tabassi, chief of staff of the NIST Information Technology Laboratory https://calendar.gwu.edu/nist-and-efforts-reduce-risk-and-build-public-trust-ai

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 7

8 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group Zoom conversation with Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), chairman, Senate Armed Services Committee. Contact: Thom Shanker at [email protected]

2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution “The Russia-Ukraine war: Year two and strategic consequences,” with Fiona Hill, senior fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings; Susan Glasser, staff writer, the New Yorker; Constanze Stelzenmuller, Fritz Stern chairwoman on Germany and trans-Atlantic relations, senior fellow, and director, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings; Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings; Matthew Duss, visiting scholar, American Statecraft Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Amy Nelson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; Kori Schake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy studies, American Enterprise Institute; Michael O’Hanlon, Philip H. Knight chairman in defense and strategy, senior fellow ,and director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; Bruce Jones, senior fellow and director, Project on International Order and Strategy, Brookings; Patricia Kim, fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies and John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings; Natan Sachs, senior fellow and director, Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings; and Tara Varma, visiting fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-ukraine-year-two

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 8

6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army Coffee Series in-person event featuring Gen. James Rainey, commanding general, U.S. Army Futures Command https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/gen-rainey

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13

TBA Brussels, Belgium — Press Conference by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of a two-day meeting of defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Stimson Center virtual and in-person discussion: “The End of History? Global Implications of the War in Ukraine,” with Marie Jourdain, visiting fellow, Atlantic Council; Michael Kofman, research program director, CNA; Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow, Center for New American Security; Michael Mazarr, senior political scientist, RAND Corporation; and Alex Ward, national security reporter, Politico https://www.stimson.org/event/the-end-of-history

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 14

TBA Brussels, Belgium — Meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group followed by the beginning of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO Headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

11:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Zoom webinar to release new report: “Innovating for Great Power Competition: An Examination of Service and Joint Innovation Efforts,” with authors Thomas Mahnken, CSBA president and CEO; Evan Montgomery, CSBA director of research and studies; and Tyler Hacker, CSBA analyst https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 17

TBA Munich, Germany — Munich Security Conference 2023 begins, running through Sunday, Feb. 19 https://securityconference.org

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 22

9:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Assessing US Military Assistance to Ukraine,” with Missy Ryan, Washington Post; Elias Yousif, research analyst, Stimson Center; and Rachel Stohl, director, Conventional Defense program, vice president, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/assessing-us-military-assistance-to-ukraine/

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 23

1:30 p.m. — Cipher Brief virtual briefing: “DIA’s Global Intelligence Picture,” with Trent Maul, director for analysis, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.thecipherbrief.com

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“They are certainly not mourning the tens of thousands of rapists and murderers that are getting killed in Ukraine, and they’ve killed some of Ukraine’s best. And when I went to Bakhmut a couple months ago, on one side there were the criminals of Wagner. On the other side, there were tennis players and musicians and engineers fighting in volunteer units.”

Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal reporter, on the WTH podcast, on Russia’s strategy of sending convicts to their deaths in full-frontal assaults with no regard for human life

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