The ongoing trade war sparked by President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes on Canada, China and Mexico is fuelling uncertainty over the US egg market. As these countries respond with their own duties on American agricultural exports, fears are mounting that supply chains could tighten further, exacerbating food inflation and impacting bakery and snack businesses already struggling with soaring costs.
The US is in the midst of a major egg shortage, driven by a devastating highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak. Egg prices have soared, shelves have emptied and bakers everywhere are scrambling for solutions.
Egg prices have shot up by 59% over the past year, squeezing businesses that rely on eggs as an essential ingredient. There is a slight silver lining: The cost of white large shell eggs declined to $6.85 per dozen, on average, on 13 March 2025, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture. That represents a decline of $1.20 per dozen and a 15% pullback from the USDA’s prior update on 28 February. But relief may be short-lived, as the USDA has revised its egg price prediction - now expecting a 41.1% increase in 2025, up from the 20.3% rise it predicted in January.
At the same time, egg prices have become a key pressure point for consumers already frustrated with persistent inflation. Concerns are growing that Trump’s tariffs - now extended to imports from the UK and EU - could drive prices even higher and push the US economy closer to recession.
The EU has announced retaliatory measures, including a 50% tariff on US whiskey, prompting Trump to threaten a 200% tariff on all alcoholic products from EU countries. The EU’s countermeasures now target $28 billion worth of US goods, including whiskey, beef and metals, which could significantly impact various sectors of the US economy. These escalating tariffs have raised concerns about further price increases and potential economic downturns, contributing to heightened market volatility and fears of a broader slowdown.
A crisis that’s hard to crack
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak has devastated the poultry industry, hitting the US particularly hard. The virus, primarily spread by wild birds, continues to resurface, making it incredibly difficult for farmers to rebuild their flocks without facing renewed outbreaks.
“Since 2022, egg farmers have been faced with the loss of over 125 million laying hens spread across all 50 states, with more than 30 million since January 2025,” said Edward Hoffman, AEB’s VP of Marketing & Communications. “These losses have put immense pressure on the egg supply chain, leading to fluctuations in availability and price increases.”
This has whipped prices into a frenzy. A dozen Grade A large eggs now cost more than ever, with prices skyrocketing more than 170% from a year ago, according to USDA data. The steep climb has even prompted the US Department of Justice to investigate whether some of the largest egg producers, including Cal-Maine Foods, have engaged in anticompetitive practices to manipulate the market.
In fact, Joe Maxwell, president of Farm Action Fund, believes this investigation is the reason for the recent dip in egg prices. “The primary reason for the drop is actions taken by the administration’s Department of Justice to investigate the companies for possible antitrust violations,” he told CNBC. “The dominant firms have so much control over the market that they can increase prices and lower prices almost at will. There has been a softening of demand for eggs by consumers, but we do not see this as a significant factor, considering this has been an ongoing trend.”
Retailers and restaurants have implemented drastic measures to keep up. Trader Joe’s has limited egg purchases nationwide to one dozen per customer per day, while Waffle House has slapped a $0.50 surcharge on each egg served, citing ‘the dramatic increase in egg prices’ and the tough decisions restaurants and consumers alike are being forced to make.
Trump, meanwhile, has little patience for distraught consumers. He recently posted a link to the February article written by right-wing activist Charlie Kirk on his Truth Social platform.
The politics of a scrambled market
This isn’t just a supply chain story. The scale of the crisis has sparked political debate, with figures like Elon Musk blaming former President Joe Biden for “an insane slaughter of 150 million egg-laying chickens”, which has caused the runaway egg prices. Truth be told, mass culling of infected flocks has long been a standard USDA practice, enforced under multiple administrations - including Trump’s - to prevent further spread of the virus.
Despite the best efforts of farmers and government agencies, the unpredictable nature of the disease means that any recovery in egg production remains fragile. Without significant advancements in biosecurity measures or the adoption of an effective vaccine, experts warn that the poultry industry will continue to operate under the constant threat of another devastating wave of HPAI.
“The industry requires a sustained period without new outbreaks for supply stabilisation, but ongoing wild bird migration patterns pose a continued risk,” added Maxwell.
The Trump administration is trying to manage the crisis with a mix of biosecurity investments and relaxed regulations for egg producers. To mitigate the domestic shortage, the US has also started importing eggs from international suppliers.
Brazil has emerged as a significant source, with egg exports to the US surging by 57.5% in February 2025. Turkey has also stepped in, exporting 71 million eggs to support the American market. These imported eggs are helping to ease some of the supply strain, particularly for egg products and further processed markets.
“While there’s no instant solution for the devastating loss of over 125 million egg-laying hens, positive impacts of USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins’ five-pronged response to HPAI are underway,” said Hoffman. “The addition of egg imports has eased the supply strain on the egg products and further processed markets, with hundreds of loads of eggs already booked and flowing to egg processing companies here in the US.”
The broader tariff landscape raises concerns about long-term pricing and availability. Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum - along with additional levies on imports from Canada, Mexico, China and the EU – don’t directly target eggs but could have ripple effects across the agricultural supply chain, increasing costs for producers. These measures have contributed to stock market volatility in 2025, with fears that escalating trade tensions could further raise prices of goods and push a sagging economy into recession.
The unpredictability of the Trumps’ trade policies leaves industries uncertain about future targets and potential retaliatory measures from affected countries, exacerbating concerns about economic stability.
Can vaccines prevent another broken supply chain?
Still, uncertainty looms. Farmers remain vulnerable and the risk of future outbreaks keeps the entire industry on edge. Hoffman emphasises the industry needs long-term solutions, including improved farm-level disease prevention strategies. One of the more controversial discussions happening right now is around vaccinating egg-laying hens against avian flu. It’s a strategy that could theoretically prevent future outbreaks, but consumer perception is a major hurdle. Would people still buy eggs from vaccinated hens? And would large food manufacturers be comfortable using them?
“AEB is closely monitoring vaccine research and remains committed to providing science-backed information to both industry stakeholders and the public,” said Hoffman. “Collaboration with the USDA, research institutions and food safety experts will be key in shaping consumer confidence and market acceptance of a potential vaccine.”
Bakeries are getting creative to avoid cracking up
Eggs play an essential role in baked goods, providing structure, aeration and moisture retention. That makes them hard to replace in many applications. Still, Hoffman notes that bakeries have options.
“AEB is committed to actively supporting bakeries by providing technical expertise on egg functionality, formulation guidance and supply chain insights to help them navigate this period of uncertainty while maintaining product quality.”
Retailers and food manufacturers are exploring alternative strategies, including switching to powdered or liquid eggs to improve shelf stability and reduce waste. Some bakeries are experimenting with plant-based substitutes, but results have been mixed.
Among the most promising egg alternatives:
- Yeast-based egg replacements, which replicate eggs’ binding properties.
- Aquafaba, the liquid from canned chickpeas, which works well for aeration and structure.
- Flaxseed and chia seed gels, which are great plant-based binders.
- Commercial egg replacers made from blended starches and proteins for general use.
While prices may have dipped slightly in early March, the road to stability remains long. The USDA has already revised its egg production forecasts downward for 2025, signalling that the industry won’t be bouncing back overnight.
Until supply catches up, businesses will need to stay flexible and proactive to keep their products on shelves and customers happy.
