Tariff tango: Could evolving changes reshuffle global trade alliances?

HIGH POINT — At least when it comes to doing business, every furniture manufacturer, supplier and retailer can attest that the first three months of the Trump presidency have been a whirlwind.

And that’s mainly due to one thing: tariffs.

Since Feb. 1 (but really dating back to his campaign), President Donald Trump has made tariffs a main talking point.

First, the idea was a universal tariff on all countries and imports, which then morphed into 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% additional tariffs on China. After a series of pauses and adjustments, they’re currently in effect on Canada and Mexico, but with a host of exemptions that substantially reduce their impact.

At press time, we have just experience “Liberation Day.” On April 2, Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on all major trading partners. It represents a move that — as long as tariff numbers remain unchanged — is sure to transform the entire global economy.

Companies in the furniture industry, particularly those that source product from or have manufacturing bases in Canada and Mexico, have struggled to keep up with pace of change in Trump’s tariff policy. Those that source from China have at least seen consistency, though now pay tariffs totaling 45% on many items.

And now, with Liberation Day, virtually every supplier – with perhaps the sole exception of those that manufacture their entire product domestically – must contend with tariffs. Initial reactions from suppliers indicate price increases are sure to come, at least if current levels stay the same.

Charting tariffs’ course

Feb. 1 – Trump announces 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for effect on Feb. 4, as well as additional 10% tariffs on China.

Feb. 3 – Trump announces pause on 25% tariffs on Mexico for a month, and Canada announces retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. Later in the day, Trump announces Canadian tariffs are also paused for a month. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, too, are then paused.

Feb. 4 – 10% additional tariff on China goes into effect. China announces 10% to 15% retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products.

Feb. 13 – Trump probes reciprocal tariffs by signing memorandum. The order directs a country-by-country plan to be put in place for effect on April 2. “If they charge us, we charge them,” Trump said at the time.

Feb. 21 – While not tariff-related, the U.S. Trade Representative proposes substantial fees on Chinese-built ocean cargo ships entering ports. Top furniture associations — Home Furnishing Assn. and American Home Furnishings Alliance — argue the actions will hurt American businesses and consumers.

March 1 – Trump signs executive order probing timber and lumber imports for potential tariffs. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnik has until Nov. 26 to conclude the investigation.

March 4 – The 10% additional tariff on China is doubled to 20%, bringing the total percentage on many furniture items to 45%. Also, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico go into effect.

March 6 – After two days, Trump pauses most of the new 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico by allowing for USMCA exemptions.

March 12 – Universal 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports go into effect, affecting certain furniture items and parts.

April 2 (“Liberation Day”) – Reciprocal tariffs are announced and amount to about half of what countries charge the U.S., what the Trump administration refers to as “discounted” reciprocal tariffs.

April 5 – A 10% baseline universal tariff is also planned.

April 9 – Reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to go into effect.*

* There are notable exemptions and clarifications: HS codes 4414 to 4421 and HS code 94 concern wooden furniture, and they indicate that these products are currently under investigation pursuant to Section 232 and are not subject to immediate tariffs. A final decision will be made after the investigation is concluded within 270 days.