Informing humanitarians worldwide 24/7 — a service provided by UN OCHA

Somalia + 3 more

Can addressing Climate Change alleviate the Pressures of Forced Migration in East Africa?

*by Sini Maria Heikkila, Humanitarian Policy Officer Tearfund and *

Denis Kongere, Regional Drought Policy and Campaigns Manager, Oxfam

On June 20, we mark World Refugee Day and remember more than 65 million refugees, IDPs and asylum seekers who are forcibly displaced. There are complex and inextricably intertwined issues driving forced migration including conflict, socio-economic factors such as scarcity of resources, and political factors. Climate change and increased extreme weather incidents - such as floods and droughts - also play a role in shaping the patterns of forced migration. According to one study, since 2008, an average 22.5 million people per year have been displaced by weather or climate related disasters. Yet, the full extent of the influence of climate change on forced migration is difficult, if not impossible, to establish.

An insightful ODI report on climate change, migration and displacement states that “it is very difficult to untangle how much of movement is solely or partially because of climate related hazards or how many of these hazards were influenced by climate change.” Whilst climate change does impact the nature of climate related incidents, not every hazard is influenced by it. There is also relatively limited data available on the influence of extreme weather incidents on migration and not all countries even collect data on migration regularly.

Impact of Climate Change in East Africa

Across East Africa, climate change has had a significant adverse impact on the lives and livelihoods of some of the most vulnerable populations in the region. Although slow onset drought related crises in East Africa are not a new phenomenon, their frequency and intensity has risen sharply over the past decade.

As most poor people in the region depend on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism, the recurring drought has led to repeated crop failures, poor harvests and significant livestock losses and has trapped many families in a complex mix of hunger, poverty and perennial humanitarian crisis. Oxfam’s “A Climate in Crisis” - briefing states that “there is growing scientific analysis suggesting that the impacts of current and recent droughts in East Africa are likely to have been aggravated by climate change.” These droughts have led to displacement of population and forced people to migrate long distances in search of food, water and pasture.

Migration is one of the many ways how people respond to drought and seek to sustain livelihoods. For instance, in Somalia, drought and floods have displaced close to 2.6 million people since January 2016.

More recently, after two years of severe drought and poor rains, the long-awaited rains have been another cause of disaster. The severe floods in East Africa in April and May 2018 have had devastating effects on the lives of hundreds of thousands of people across Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia.
For instance, in Kenya an estimated 800 000 people have been affected by floods, including 300 000 people who have been forced to flee their homes.

In addition to forcing people to flee, the floods had a detrimental impact on a wide range of other areas.

The numbers of people forced to flee their homes in the region, due to a number of reasons such as protracted conflict and drought, remain staggering. According to the UN refugee agency UNHCR http://reporting.unhcr.org/node/38, East and Horn of Africa hosted 3.2 million refugees in 2017 and nearly 5.76 million IDPs.

Double Wins - Addressing Climate Change can help to reduce Forced Migration

As is often the case, those who contributed least to climate change are the ones worst hit by its negative impact. As a whole, Africa is the continent contributing least to global warming having the smallest share of global greenhouse gas emissions (3.8%).

Whilst humanitarian organisations continue to address the immediate needs of populations whose livelihoods have been destroyed and who have been forced to flee, it remains important to invest in long-term programmes to address the human vulnerability to climate change, including providing appropriate livelihood support and building resilience amongst some of the vulnerable populations such as women and pastoralists.

It is also crucial to mitigate the impact of climate change - both at individual and government level. The Paris Agreement targets and plans to transition to zero emissions to get back on track to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees has to be prioritised. Here access to clean, affordable and safe energy sources - one of Tearfund’s policy priorities -is critical, especially for the poorest.