News analysis: Duty, hope and history — Biden prepares for 2020 run

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[H]e’s running.

He never said it explicitly, but former Vice President Joe Biden left little doubt Sunday when he spoke to a full house at Burlington’s Flynn Theater that he will be a candidate in the 2020 presidential race.

Repeatedly, Biden talked about “duty” to family and country. He mentioned the word so many times it would stand tall in a word cloud of his hour-plus interview, right alongside “hope” and “history.” When the interviewer — the novelist Jodi Picoult, who admirably kept the long-winded Biden from going too far off track — suggested those two H-words summed up Biden’s career, the 76-year-old, hands folded, sitting legs spread wide, head bowed, nodded in agreement.

Biden spoke eloquently of loss, particularly the sudden death of his wife and daughter in a car accident the month after he was first elected to the U.S Senate in 1972, hit by a tractor trailer while they were out shopping for a Christmas tree. Relevant to today, Biden described how he reacted to that tragedy: initially, he wanted to flee to Vermont and almost bought a house in Rutland, but he decided instead to stay in Delaware and soldier on.

When his son Beau died in 2015, of brain cancer at 46 years old, Biden said he promised his son he would not withdraw but continue his life of public service. (Beau’s supposed deathbed request that Biden run, promoted by New York columnist Maureen Dowd, Biden said, was myth and happened months earlier.) Biden’s commitment to public service is so deep he has never owned a stock or bond.

Biden had planned to run in 2016 — Beau wanted him to as well — thinking “I was best equipped to finish the job Barack (Obama) and I had started” in their two terms together. Biden was soon torn by loyalty. When Beau got sick, Biden promised not to discuss his condition, preventing him from telling his swelling presidential campaign staff he wouldn’t be running since then they’d know Beau was critically ill.

“I didn’t have the courage,” Biden said about the possibility of reviving his candidacy after Beau passed away. But he also promised Beau he would not retreat.

“He was worried that I’d retreat,” Biden said. “He was worried that what I’d worked on my whole life, the things that mattered to me the most since I was a kid, that I’d walk away, that I’d turn inward, that I’d withdraw from public life.”

Their relationship appeared to be deeper and more powerful than just father and son; they were close confidants and one another’s alter egos. Biden spoke of how Beau would grab his face before a big speech right before he hopped on stage, say ‘look at me’, and reinforce the point of the talk or remind his old man that “you’re a Biden.”

It would be hard to imagine Biden — if he were to shy away from a 2020 run — looking in the mirror and not seeing Beau’s disapproval. As much as he loves his five grandchildren, it would seem to go against his nature for Biden to bide his time being content texting or calling them as he said he does every day. The thought of his grandchildren, did, however draw the biggest of his signature smiles.

The other evidence of Biden 2020 were the two issues Biden raised as his biggest concerns, two “isms” he said were tied together, the rise of nationalism and “phony” populism. It was hard to miss the connection to President Trump, who Biden never named. Nor did Biden mention fellow Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is also considered a presidential contender for 2020, but Biden’s appearance felt more like a venture into a friendly blue state than Trump’s more in-your-face appearance in Sanders’ backyard back in January 2016.

Another clue that Biden will run was the look of pain he showed when talking about the possible breakup of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Trump has complained the organization is “obsolete” and that the United States is carrying too much of the financial burden. Biden spoke of his work over the years as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where he promoted the expansion of the organization beyond the core European countries to counterbalance Russia.

Biden’s 2017 book about Beau’s death, “Promise Me, Dad: A Year of Hope, Hardship and Purpose” was the reason for the staged event, but provided more evidence of a run as well. When Beau was dying, Biden said also promised his son he would “stay engaged.” The 19-city book tour began with an appearance with Oprah Winfrey.